Market Recap - WALL STREET INFLICTED BY A VIRUS

Stocks Struggled To Fend Off Coronavirus Headlines And Overvaluation Talk During This Holiday-Shortened Trading Week. The S&P 500 (-1.0%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.2%), And Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%) Set New Highs Mid-Week But Were Hit With Noticeable Losses On Friday. The Russell 2000 Continued To Underperform With A 2.2% Weekly Decline. 

A new strain of coronavirus originated in Wuhan, China and forced the country to lock down several cities right before the Lunar New Year festivities. There were two confirmed cases in the U.S., one in Seattle and the other in Chicago, but the World Health Organization did not declare an international virus alert or public health emergency.

There were concerns that economic activity would slow down, as well as earnings growth as a result, which provided sellers a convenient excuse to sell a market some think is overvalued. Growth concerns were manifested in the 7.4% weekly drop in WTI crude ($54.21/bbl, -$4.34), the advance in Treasuries, and the heavy losses in the cyclical energy (-4.3%), materials (-2.3%), and financials (-2.2%) sectors.

Conversely, the rate-sensitive utilities (+2.4%) and real estate (+1.0%) sectors finished comfortably higher amid the decline in yields. The information technology sector (+0.3%) followed suit, thanks to earnings-driven gains in IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC). Shares of Intel surged 8% on Friday. 

Staying in the semiconductor space, Bloomberg reported that Apple (AAPL) will begin producing low-cost iPhones next month and asked Taiwan Semi (TSM) to increase its chip supply to meet strong iPhone demand. Broadcom (AVGO) reached two, separate multi-year agreements with Apple to supply it with high-performance wireless components and modules.

Other notable stories included Tesla (TSLA) reaching a $100 billion market-cap valuation, Comcast (CMCSA) saying it expects video subscriber losses to increase in 2020, and Boeing (BA) delaying its 737 MAX timeline to mid-2020. A report on Friday indicated the FAA could approve the 737 MAX before mid-year, though. 

The U.S. Treasury market experienced some curve-flattening activity. The 2-yr yield dropped eight basis points to 1.48%, and the 10-yr yield dropped 16 basis points to 1.68%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.3% to 97.86.

Market Recap - S&P 500 Climbs Past 3300 in Strong Start to Earnings Season

The stock market plowed to new records this week, as earnings reports, economic data, trade news, and the bullish price action continued to bolster risk sentiment. The S&P 500 (+2.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.3%), and Russell 2000 (+2.5%) rose at least 2.0%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.8%) followed right behind.

Six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished with gains of at least 2.0%, including a 3.8% gain in the defensive oriented utilities sector. The energy sector (-1.1%) was the only sector to finish lower, as oil prices ($58.55/bbl, -0.44, -0.8%) continued to falter.

The macro news flow remained mostly positive and ultimately indicated that the economy is still growing at a steady pace, which could continue to favor equities. In economic data, retail sales and housing starts showed healthy gains in December, while inflation pressures remained muted. In trade news, the U.S. removed China from its currency manipulator list, the Phase One trade deal was signed, and the USMCA trade deal was passed in the Senate.

Earnings reports were generally positive, too. Financial Week Ending 1/17/2020 companies, most notably Morgan Stanley (MS), kicked off the fourth quarter reporting season with solid results, although investors will have to wait until next week for guidance from a broader set of companies.

Strikingly, Alphabet (GOOG) became the fourth U.S. company to reach the $1 trillion market-cap valuation this week. General concerns about valuations were subdued this week considering all the pieces of good news, which also helped the market look past relatively disappointing holiday sales results from Target (TGT) and earnings results from several transportation companies. U.S. Treasuries were little changed in another quiet week of trading despite the rally in equities. The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 1.56%, and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point to 1.84%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.3% to 97.662. On a related note, the Treasury Department said it will start issuing 20-yr bonds in the first half of this year.

Market Recap - Stock Market Returns to Winning Ways as GeopoliticalTensions Subside

The Large-Cap Indices Hit New Record Highs This Week, As Tensions In The Middle East Were De-Escalated And Technology Stocks Continued To Outperform. The Nasdaq Composite Rose 1.8% To Climb Past The S&P 500 (+0.9%) And Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%). The Russell 2000 (-0.2%) Underperformed For The Third Straight Week.

Iran remained a focal point, at least in the first half of the week after it escalated its hostile rhetoric against the U.S. and fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. Any equity weakness was bought, and a risk-on mindset followed de-escalation comments from President Trump amid no American casualties.

The mega-cap stocks within the S&P 500 information technology (+2.2%) and communication services (+2.0%) sectors continued to provide influential leadership. The energy sector (-1.1%), on the other hand, was this week's laggard amid a 6.4% drop in the price of oil ($58.99, -4.04). Crude was pressured by bearish inventory data and skepticism that the Middle East situation would disrupt production.

On Friday, the December jobs report showed 145,000 jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in December, which was less than the Briefing.com consensus of 160,000 and less than the readings for November and October. The soft report could have been a good reason to take some profits from what many viewed to be an overbought market, as stocks did end the week on a lower note. 

Separately, a Boeing (BA) 737-800 jetliner crashed shortly after takeoff in Tehran this week, killing all 176 passengers on board. President Trump and U.S. allies believed that the plane was shot down by Iranian missiles, but there was no indication that the U.S. would reconsider its de-escalation strategy. 

U.S. Treasuries ended the week slightly higher. The 2-yr yield declined two basis points to 1.56%, and the 10-yr yield declined four basis points to 1.83%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.5% to 97.36.

Market Recap - New Year Brings End to S&P 500’s Five-Week Winning Streak

The Stock Market Ended A Stellar 2019 On A Quiet Note, Started 2020 With A Bang, Then Succumbed To Some Profit Taking After A U.S. Airstrike Escalated Tensions In The Middle East. By Week's End, The S&P 500 Declined 0.2%, The Dow Jones Industrial Average Declined 0.04%, And The Russell 2000 Declined 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite, However, Did Increase 0.2%.

The positive, yet short-lived, catalyst this week was China announcing it will cut the reserve requirement ratio for small and large banks by 50 basis points on Jan. 6. The accommodative policy provides about $115 billion in additional liquidity that can be lent out.

Stocks quickly gave back gains the following day on Friday after a U.S. airstrike in Iraq killed Iran's top military leader, General Qasem Suleimani, which prompted retaliatory threats from Iran. In addition, the release of the ISM Manufacturing Index for December, which fell to its lowest level since June 2009, dampened risk sentiment.

Given the gravitas of the Middle East situation, the disappointing manufacturing data, and how far the market's record run has come, investors did not overreact. Selling pressure was modest on the presumptions that the geopolitical angst isn't something to get overly concerned about yet and that central bank easing will help the manufacturing sector overcome weakness.

Separately, President Trump said the Phase One trade deal will be signed at the White House on Jan. 15 and that he will later travel to Beijing for Phase Two talks. Market reaction was muted to the news, indicating it was already priced into the market.

U.S. Treasuries ended the week higher, as investors did assume some defensive positioning. The 2-yr yield fell seven basis points to 1.51%, and the 10-yr yield fell eight basis points to 1.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 96.90. WTI crude rose 2.1%, or $1.29, to $63.03/bbl.

Market Recap - Major Indices Hit New Records as U.S. and China Reach Phase One Trade Deal

It Was Another Record-Setting Week In Which The U.S. And China Reached A Phase One Trade Deal That Helped Avoid The Dec. 15 Tariffs. The S&P 500 (+0.7%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%), And Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) Set New Intraday Highs. The Russell 2000 Increased 0.3%.

Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, with the information technology sector (+2.0%) outperforming by a wide margin amid strength in the semiconductor space. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.2%. The real estate sector (-2.6%) greatly underperformed, and the communication services sector (-0.7%) finished modestly lower. 

These results were mostly solidified before the trade announcement on Friday, which was largely expected given the gains posted beforehand and the muted reaction after the official decision. Specifically, the USTR confirmed that the tariff rate on $250 billion of Chinese imports will remain at 25%, the tariff rate on $120 billion of Chinese imports will be cut to 7.5% from 15%, and China will commit to purchase additional U.S. farm goods. 

Agricultural purchases will reportedly be between $40-50 billion over a two-year period. President Trump added that Phase Two discussions will begin immediately, which should focus on issues pertaining to forced technology transfers and IP rights, according to NEC Director Kudlow. 

Trade dominated the headlines and dictated price action, but this week also included FOMC and ECB policy decisions, a UK election, government deals, and the Retail Sales Report and Consumer Price Index for November:

• Both central banks left rates unchanged, with the Fed signaling no rate hike in 2020.

• The Conservative Party won in a landslide, setting up a Brexit by Jan. 31.

• A USMCA deal was reached and a bipartisan budget deal was reportedly reached, as well.

• Retail sales and consumer prices for November increased less than expected. 

U.S. Treasuries had another week of wild swings but ultimately finished near their unchanged marks from last week. Both the 2-yr yield and 10-yr yield declined one basis point each to 1.60% and 1.82%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 97.19. WTI crude rose 2.8% (+$1.66) to $60.11/bbl.

Market Recap - Strong Jobs Report Helps S&P 500 Erase Weekly Losses

The S&P 500 Increased 0.2% In A Choppy Week Of Trading, As A Strong November Employment Helped The Broader Market Overcome A Rough Start. The Russell 2000 Rose 0.6%, While The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) And Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) Were Unable To Recoup All Their Losses. 

This week's leaders included the S&P 500 energy (+1.5%), consumer staples (+0.9%), health care (+0.9%), and financials (+0.7%) sectors. The industrials (-1.1%), consumer discretionary (-0.8%), information technology (-0.4%), and real estate (-0.3%) sectors finished lower. 

The week began with the S&P 500 dropping about 70 points, or 2.3%, from its Friday closing level in less than two sessions. The two primary catalysts were a weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index for November and President Trump suggesting that a trade deal with China might be better if it waited until after the 2020 election. 

The news might have been good excuses to take some profits after a great month of November (and year), but an opportunistic mindset quickly took fold. Risk sentiment was first supported by reports that trade talks are nearing a deal and was later buoyed by a stronger-than-expected November employment report. 

Nonfarm payrolls climbed 266,000 (Briefing.com consensus 182,000), firmly beating expectations and coming in above the upwardly revised readings for October and September. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.6%), and average hourly earnings increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). 

On Friday, China added to the upbeat trade mood after it said it began to exempt some U.S. agricultural purchases from tariffs. On a related note, tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Argentina and Brazil were restored after the countries devalued their currencies, while $2.4 billion of French imports may be taxed up to 100% after France passed a digital tax law that allegedly targets U.S. tech companies.

Separately, there were some notable corporate leadership changes.

Alphabet's (GOOG) CEO Larry Page and President Sergey Brin stepped down from management and ceded CEO duties to Sundar Pichai in addition to his current CEO role at Google. Expedia's (EXPE) CEO Mark Okerstrom and CFO Alan Pickerill resigned at the board's request. United Airlines (UAL) CEO Oscar Munoz will step down in May and transition to Executive Chairman.

U.S. Treasuries had some big swings but ultimately finished near their unchanged marks from last week. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.63%, and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point to 1.84%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.6% to 97.68. WTI crude climbed 7.3% to $59.20/bbl, as OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2020.

Market Recap - Fresh Records Set During Thanksgiving Week

The major averages ended the Thanksgiving week with solid gains across the board. The strong showing lifted the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 to fresh record highs while the Russell 2000 climbed to its best level since October 2018.

Trade-related headlines continued pouring in during the early portion of the week, but once again, they did not introduce anything material into the discussion. More notably, President Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act on Wednesday evening, prompting some angry statements, but nothing more concrete, from Chinese officials.

Global economic data continued painting a gloomy picture, as China’s industrial profits decreased at the sharpest rate in eight years in October while South Korea (actual -1.7% m/m; expected 0.1%) and Japan (actual -4.2% m/m; expected -2.1%) reported falling industrial production in October.

Ten out of eleven sectors ended the week with gains, and five out of ten gained 1.0% or more. The consumer Week Ending 11/29/19 discretionary sector was the top performer, rising 1.8%. The group finished in the lead even though Telsey Advisory Group cautioned that store traffic on Thursday and Friday was likely down a touch when compared to last year.

The energy sector (-1.6%) was the only notable decliner of the week as the price of crude oil slid back below its 50-day moving average.

Market Recap - S&P 500 Snaps Six-Week Winning Streak

The S&P 500 Snapped A Six-Week Winning Streak, Although It Declined Just 0.3% This Week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) And Russell 2000 (-0.5%) Performed In-Line With The Benchmark Index This Week, Reflecting A Broad-Based Lack Of Conviction. 

The week began with the large-cap indices closing at incremental record highs on Monday, but stocks ultimately struggled for direction the rest of the week. The S&P 500 materials (-1.7%) and real estate (-1.2%) sectors lost more than 1%. The health care (+0.8%), financials (+0.5%), and utilities (+0.2%) sectors finished higher. 

Trade headlines remained a part of the equation, of course. Receiving the most attention was a Reuters report that briefly unnerved the market by suggesting a deal may not be completed this year. There was still no sustained pullback effort, though, as the consensus view was that some sort of deal is still likely. 

As for the Dec. 15 tariffs, a report out of China had suggested that they could get delayed even if a deal isn't reached, but a FOX Business reporter said that they are still planned. Complicating the situation was the U.S. Senate passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which unsurprisingly drew the ire of Beijing. Chinese President Xi called for mutual respect and equality moving forward.

Back to stocks, retailers remained on the path of divergence after this week's batch of earnings reports. Home Depot (HD) and Kohl's (KSS) were some notable disappointments, while Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), and Nordstrom (JWN) were some notable winners. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) declined 2.3% this week. 

Separately, Charles Schwab (SCHW) began talks to acquire TD Ameritrade (AMTD) for a reported $26 billion in a move that would help consolidate a disrupted industry. Shares of both companies climbed about 8% and 16%, respectively.

The U.S. Treasury market experienced some curve-flattening activity this week. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.63%, while the 10-yr yield declined six basis points to 1.77%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.3% to 98.26. WTI crude increased 0.2%, or $0.13, to $57.88. 

Market Recap - Stock Market Continues Record Run as Trade Talks Progress and Investors Embrace Risk

The S&P 500 (+0.9%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.2%), and Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) set new records this week, with the bulk of this week’s gains coming on Friday after NEC Director Larry Kudlow said a Phase One trade agreement was close to being reached.

The small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.2%) was left out of the rally. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Peter Navarro expressed similar views on trade. Other “people familiar with the talks,” however, told news outlets that both sides are struggling to overcome issues on exiting tariffs, enforcement mechanisms, and agricultural purchases.

The market remained optimistic, yet somewhat cautious as money flowed into the defensiveoriented health care (+2.4%), real estate (+1.9%), and utilities (+1.5%) sectors. The outperformance of the market’s biggest technology names like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG) seemed like a “safe” play, too.

Laggards included the S&P 500 energy (-1.3%), financials (-0.3%), and consumer discretionary (-0.2%) sectors. Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell sharply on disappointing quarterly guidance.

Well-received corporate news came out of Walt Disney (DIS), Boeing (BA), and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA).

Disney said 10 million users signed up for Disney+ in its first day. Boeing said it expects 737 MAX deliveries to resume in December and commercial service to resume in January. Walgreens reportedly received a leveraged buyout offer from KKR & Co. (KKR).

Separately, President Trump’s speech at the Economic Club of New York and Fed Chair Powell’s two-day congressional testimony were two high-profile events this week. Neither, however, provided the market information it didn’t already know about trade negotiations, the economy, or monetary policy.

U.S. Treasuries finished the week higher, which sent yields lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.61%, and the 10-yr yield declined ten basis points to 1.83%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.4% to 97.99. WTI crude increased 0.9%, or $0.54, to $57.75/bbl.

Market Recap - Stock Market Continues Record Run as Trade TalksProgress and Investors Embrace Risk

The S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%), And Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.2%) Broke Out To New Record Highs In A Week Full Of Trade Headlines That Were Viewed Favorably By The Market.  

Cyclical sectors set the pace while U.S. Treasuries sold off. The small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.6%) trailed its large-cap peers.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross started the week by saying "good progress " was being made in "Phase One" negotiations. Progress this week consisted of discussions taking place to remove some tariffs in order to sign this first section, which will reportedly be pushed back to December as both sides continue to discuss terms and a venue.

China's Commerce Ministry announced that it reached an agreement with the U.S. for both sides to phase out tariffs, but President Trump said he had yet to agree to roll back existing tariffs. White House Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Peter Navarro confirmed reports that there were at least considerations being made to delay the Dec. 15 tariffs.

The key takeaway was that the market continued to think that some sort of deal will still get signed, unless there are material developments to suggest otherwise. This optimistic view continued to foster a risk-on mindset in the stock market and a bearish sentiment in the Treasury market.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (+3.1%) and S&P 500 financials sector (+2.4%) outperformed this week and both groups hit 52-week highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+2.8%) and the S&P 500 information technology (+1.7%) and industrials (+1.9%) sectors set new all-time highs. The energy (+2.0%) and materials (+2.0%) sectors also outperformed.

The sell-off in the Treasury market sent yields higher in a curve-steepening trade that contributed to the outperformance of the financials sector. The higher yields, though, did hurt sentiment in the real estate (-3.7%) and utilities (-3.7%) sectors.

The 2-yr yield rose ten basis points to 1.66%, and the 10-yr yield rose 20 basis points to 1.93%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 1.2% to 98.37. WTI crude rose $1.00 (+1.8%) to $57.21/bbl.

Other positive reminders for the market were monetary policy remains favorable, the labor market remains strong, and the U.S. consumer remains in good shape. For some investors, this reinforced a fear of missing out on a market breaking out to record highs amid signs of trade progress.