Market Recap -Stocks Slide After Huge Post-election Run

The stock market followed last week's surge with some consolidation activity.

The S&P 500 hit another record high on Monday, and closed above 6,000 for the first time, but settled 2.1% lower this week. The index is still 1.5% higher since the election results.

Selling favored chipmakers and mega caps, but losses were broad based. The equal‐weighted S&P 500 closed 1.7% lower than last Friday. Only two S&P 500 sectors closed higher this week while eight sectors logged losses ranging from 1.1% to 5.5%.

The energy (+0.6%) and financial (+1.4%) sectors were the lone standouts in positive territory while the health care sector (‐5.5%) registered the largest loss, followed by the information technology sector (-3.2%).

Health care related stocks struggled through the week, but exhibited noticeable weakness on Friday after the news that President‐elect Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., known as a vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

Chipmakers were also struggling through the week, and also exhibited noticeable weakness on Friday after fiscal Q1 guidance from Applied Materials (AMAT), a leading chip equipment maker, failed to meet the market's more optimistic expectations.

The overall negative bias this week wasn't extreme compared to last week's surge, and stemmed from concerns over interest rates and speculation that the Fed may be more cautious with rate cuts than the market previously hoped. The 10-yr yield, which briefly reached 4.50%, settled 12 basis points higher than last Friday at 4.43%. The 2‐yr yield settled five basis points higher than last Friday at 4.30%.

This price action was related in part to remarks by Fed Chair Powell indicating that the "economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." This week's data largely corroborated Mr. Powell's comments.

Total CPI was up 2.6% year-over-year, versus 2.4% in September, and core CPI up 3.3% year-over-year, unchanged from September. Total PPI was up 2.4% year-over-year, versus 1.9% in September, and the index for final demand, less food and energy, was up 3.1% year-over-year, versus 3.0% in September.

Weekly jobless claims remained below recession-like levels, reflecting ongoing strength in the labor market that may translate to higher consumer spending,  piling more pressure on inflation. Retail sales were solid in October and the data was stronger than headline numbers suggest due to upward revisions in the September data.

• Nasdaq Composite: -3.2% for the week / +24.4% YTD

• S&P 500: -2.1% for the week / +23.1% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -2.7% for the week / +15.3% YTD

• Russell 2000: -4.0% for the week / +13.7% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.2% for the week / +15.3% YTD

Market Recap - Stocks Surge to All-time Highs After Election Results

Stocks soared on this busy week that featured the release of a big batch of quarterly results, another rate cut from the FOMC, and the outcome of congressional and presidential elections.

The day after the election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 1,500 points, the Russell 2000 soared 5.8%, the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.0%, and the S&P 500, with a 2.5% gain, logged its best post‐election performance ever!

There was the relief factor, with participants enthused that this won't be a contested election, and there was the growth factor, with participants thinking president‐elect Trump's aim to lower tax rates and decrease regulations will foster economic growth that remains above potential.

That view of policy matters manifested itself in a variety of ways:

• Small-cap stocks soared

• Financial stocks soared

• The U.S. dollar surged against other major currencies

• Bitcoin prices moved noticeably higher

• Cyclical sectors outperformed

There were a lot of "big winners" this week. Tesla (TSLA) was among them, capitalizing handsomely on the idea that Elon Musk's strong support of Donald Trump will be an added boon for the company. Shares settled 29.0% higher than last Friday.

Thursday's FOMC policy announcement didn't deter the market rally. The unanimous FOMC vote to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50‐4.75% was largely expected.

The response in equities wasn't related so much to anything the Fed Chair said about policy, but rather more about what he didn't say - or imply. Specifically, he didn't implicitly remove the possibility of another rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. Mr. Powell reiterated, as we thought he might, that policy is not on a preset course and that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

The Fed chair seemed to be marveling at the strength of the economy and the Fed's policy settings, both of which he thinks are in a very good place. He deferred answering questions about how president‐elect Trump's policy proposals might affect the Fed's decision‐making, noting simply the Fed can't really model for them because it doesn't know any of the specifics yet.

As an aside, he sounded terse indicating he wouldn't resign his position if president‐elect Trump asked him to, and said simply that the president firing or demoting him is not permitted under the law.

In other news, NVIDIA (NVDA) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) replaced Intel (INTC) and Dow Inc. (DOW) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average starting on Friday, November 8.

• Nasdaq Composite: +5.7% for the week / +28.5% YTD

• S&P 500: +4.7% for the week / +25.7% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: +6.3% for the week / +18.5% YTD

• Russell 2000: +8.6% for the week / +18.4% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +4.6% for the week / +16.7% YTD

Market Recap - Busy week of earnings and economic data ends mostly lower

This was a huge week in terms of earnings and economic news and the major indices closed mostly lower.

The S&P 500 declined 1.4%, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 0.2% lower. The Russell 2000 eked out a 0.1% gain on the week.

Mega cap names that reported earnings garnered mixed responses from investors. Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon.com (AMZN) closed 3.4% and 5.4% higher, respectively, on the week after their quarterly reports. Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) closed with losses ranging from 1.1% to 4.2% following their earnings reports.

Chipmakers showed weakness through the week. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was an influential loser, dropping 9.2% after reporting earnings and soft Q4 revenue guidance. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) settled 4.1% lower than last Friday.

In terms of economic news, market participants were digesting:

• Initial jobless claims that were a low 216,000, the Q3 Employment Cost Index that was up 0.8%, personal income that was up 0.3% month-over-month in September, personal spending that increased 0.5%, and the core-PCE Price Index was stuck at 2.7% year-over-year for the third straight month.

• Private-sector payrolls, which increased by 233,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus), according to ADP, real GDP, which increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%), bolstered by a 3.7% increase in consumer spending, and pending home sales that jumped 7.4% in September (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%).

• Nonfarm payrolls that increased by just 12,000 (Briefing.com consensus 120,000) while nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000). This news was followed by a report of tepid construction activity in September and a dip in the October ISM Manufacturing PMI to 46.5% (Briefing.com consensus 47.6%) -- the lowest reading in 2024 -- from 47.2% in the previous month.

• The jobs data were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connote softness in hiring activity.

Treasury yields settled sharply higher this week. The 10 - yr yield jumped 13 basis points to 4.36% and the 2-yr yield settled ten basis points higher at 4.20%.

• Nasdaq Composite: -1.5% for the week / +21.5% YTD

• S&P 500: -1.4% for the week / +20.1% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.2% for the week / +11.6% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -0.2% for the week / +11.6% YTD

• Russell 2000: +0.1% for the week / +9.0% YTD

Market Recap- S&P 500 breaks six-week winning streak

The stock market faced some selling pressure after six straight weeks of gains for the S&P 500.

Last Friday's close had the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average at record highs, so normal consolidation was part of the story this week.

The S&P 500 closed 1.0% lower this week and the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 2.7%. The profit-taking activity was fueled by rising market rates. The 10-yr yield settled 16 basis points higher this week at 4.23% and the 2-yr yield settled 15 basis points higher this week at 4.10%. This week's selling in the Treasury market expanded the 2s10s spread by a basis points to 13 bps.

The Nasdaq Composite managed to settle 0.2% higher for the week, benefitting from buying activity in mega caps and semiconductor shares.

Some of the buying in mega cap shares was related to the huge jump in Tesla (TSLA) following impressive Q3 earnings and 2025 vehicle growth forecast.

Other names that reported earnings included blue chip companies like Verizon (VZ), 3M (MMM), GE Aerospace (GE), Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Motors (GM), IBM (IBM), and Honeywell (HON).

• Nasdaq Composite: +0.2% for the week / +23.4% YTD

• S&P 500: -1.0% for the week / +21.8% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.7% for the week / +11.7% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: -2.8% for the week / +11.7% YTD

• Russell 2000: -3.0% for the week / +8.9% YTD

Market Recap - S&P 500, DJIA at New All-Time Highs After Winning Week

The stock market closed out another winning week with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average at fresh record highs.

The Russell 2000 (1.9%) pacing index gains, the S&P 500 settled 0.9% higher, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.0%.

Gains were relatively broad based, driven by ongoing momentum as stocks continue to hit new record highs. The equal-weighted S&P 500 settled 1.1% higher than last Friday.

Semiconductor stocks were a pocket of weakness in a mostly upbeat tape. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped 2.4% this week in response to a Bloomberg report that the Biden administration is looking at curbing sales of advanced AI chips to certain countries, with a focus on Persian Gulf countries, and in response to ASML's (ASML) Q3 results.

The semiconductor equipment maker's results were released early and disappointed investors due to below‐consensus EPS, revenues, and net bookings. The company also issued weaker-than-expected FY25 revenue guidance saying, "While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover."

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) reported pleasing Q3 results, along with better-than-expected Q4 guidance, which stirred some buy-the-dip interest in the space by the end of the week.

A lot of the earnings news this week was well received, contributing to the overall positive bias. Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH) was an exception, registering a sharp decline after reporting its third quarter earnings, which featured an increase in its medical care ratio, and issuing some tepid FY25 earnings guidance.

This price action impacted the S&P 500 health care sector's performance. It was one of two sectors to close lower this week. The only other sector to log a decline was energy (-2.6%), which was reacting to a drop in oil prices. WTI crude oil futures settled Friday at $68.62/bbl.

The financial sector was a top performer as investors digested a slate of earnings news from the space. Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) were some of the standouts in that respect.

Market participants were also weighing the notion that the Fed won't be as aggressive as previously thought after more solid economic data. This week's releases included September retail sales, which were stronger than expected, and initial jobless claims, which were not as bad as feared.

• Nasdaq Composite: +0.8% for the week / +23.2% YTD

• S&P 500: +0.9% for the week / +23.0% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.0% for the week / +14.8% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: +1.4% for the week / +15.0% YTD

• Russell 2000: +1.9% for the week / +12.3% YTD

Market Recap - Data-heavy Week Ends with Solid Gains

It was a somewhat choppy week for stocks.

The major indices exhibited up and down action, ultimately rallying on Friday. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones

Industrial Average set record highs. The market placed geopolitical worries, along with concerns about Hurricanes Milton and Helene, on the back burner and focused on economic releases and Fed policy instead.

The September Consumer Price Index report was hotter-than-expected at the headline (actual 0.2%; expected 0.1%) and core (actual 0.3%; expected 0.2%) level. The year-over-year growth rate of core CPI increased to 3.3% from 3.2% in August and the growth rate of headline CPI slowed to 2.4% from 2.5% in August.

Some positive news from the report was that the shelter component, which has been the biggest driver of core inflation, saw its smallest increase (+0.2%) since June. Investors also received weekly jobless claims, which totaled 258,000 versus last week's count of 225,000.

Other data included the September Producer Price Index and preliminary consumer sentiment data from October, which also supported the idea that the Fed will continue cutting rates.

The market didn't react much to the minutes for the September 17–18 FOMC meeting, which didn't contain any surprises. The minutes showed that almost all participants saw upside risks to the inflation outlook as having diminished, while downside risks to employment were seen as having increased.

By the end of the week, market participants were digesting some earnings results from influential names in the financial space. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and BlackRock (BLK) all received positive responses to their earnings results.

• Nasdaq Composite: +1.1% for the week / +22.2% YTD

• S&P 500: +1.1% for the week / +21.9% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.2% for the week / +13.7% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: +1.1% for the week / +13.4% YTD

• Russell 2000: +1.0% for the week / +10.2% YTD

Market Recap - Choppy Start to Fourth Quarter

The stock market traded lower through most of the week.

The market slid under selling interest that was sparked by general profit-taking efforts after a big run in the third quarter and some nervousness related to a worsening geopolitical environment after Iran fired missiles at Israel, which prompted a vow of retaliation.

The geopolitical angst manifested in rising oil prices. WTI crude oil futures settled at $68.15/bbl last Friday and jumped to $74.40/bbl this Friday. This price action boosted the S&P 500 energy sector, which jumped 7.0% this week.

The three major indices managed to close fractionally higher than last Friday thanks to a rally driven by Friday's release of the September Employment Situation Report.

The report showed stronger than expected hiring, a drop in unemployment, and a rise in average hourly earnings. This was consistent with the market's soft landing narrative, which led to a recalibration in rate cut expectations due to the notion that the Fed won't have to act as aggressive going forward compared to the September meeting.

The likelihood of a 50-basis points rate cut at the November FOMC meeting dropped to 0.0% on Friday, down from 32.1% Thursday and 53.3% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Market participants were also dealing with growth concerns initially that were stirred by the start of the East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers strike. The strike was resolved, at least temporarily, by the end of the week.

Treasury yields moved sharply higher this week. The 10-yr yield jumped 23 basis points to 3.98% and the 2-yr yield settled 37 basis points higher at 3.93%.

• Nasdaq Composite: +0.1% for the week / +20.8% YTD

• S&P 500: +0.2% for the week / +20.6% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.1% for the week / +12.4% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: ‐0.03% for the week / +12.1% YTD

• Russell 2000: ‐0.5% for the week / +9.2% YTD

Market Recap - Spotlight seized by stimulus news from China

The market's attention was largely focused on China during the past week.

The country's officials announced a raft of measures aimed at boosting consumption, property demand, and stock market liquidity. The People's Bank of China lowered its reserve requirement ratio, the repurchase rate, the medium‐term lending facility rate, and hinted at a potential cut to the loan prime rate. A flood of fiscal spending was also announced with upcoming bond issuance expected to reach roughly half of the amount spent to counter the Great Financial Crisis.

Chinese equities soared in response with the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumping 13.0% for the week while risk assets in Europe and the U.S. also showed strength, though ongoing pressure on the price of crude kept growth concerns at the back of the market's mind.

There was also renewed strength in semiconductor names after Micron (MU) beat quarterly expectations and issued strong guidance. The stock rallied to a two‐month high, taking the PHLX Semiconductor Index for the ride (+4.3% for the week).

Longer-dated Treasuries ended the week with slight losses while the 2-yr note eked out a gain as rate cut expectations increased. At the end of the week, the fed funds futures market was pointing to a 54.8% implied likelihood of another 50-basis point cut in November, up from 50.4% a week ago.

• Nasdaq Composite: +1.0% for the week / +20.7% YTD

• S&P 500: +0.6% for the week / +20.3% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: +0.5% for the week / +12.1% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.6% for the week / +12.2% YTD

• Russell 2000: -0.1% for the week / +9.7% YTD

Market Recap - Another Winning Week After Outsized Rate Cut

It was another strong week for stocks.

Early in the week, gains were fueled by optimism about the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points. The Fed delivered and gains continued until Friday, when the market closed flattish as participants digested the solid run in equities. Friday's session was also a "quadruple witching" quarterly expiration of stock options, index options, single stock futures, and index futures.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted in favor of cutting the target range for the fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.7%-5.00%. It was not a unanimous vote. Fed Governor Bowman preferred a 25-basis points rate cut.

The directive indicated that the Committee has "gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance."

The Summary of Economic Projections showed a shift in the median estimate for the 2024 unemployment rate to 4.4% (from 4.0% in June) and a downward shift in PCE inflation to 2.3% (from 2.6% in June) and core-PCE inflation to 2.6% (from 2.8%). The dot-plot, meanwhile, shows a median estimate for 2024 (4.40%) that implies another 50 basis points of rate cuts this year and another 100 basis points in 2025.

Fed Chair Powell defended the larger, 50-basis points cut as a proper "recalibration" to make sure the labor market and the economy remain in a solid condition and that the intent of the more aggressive move is to make sure they remain there. He also said that the Fed doesn't feel like it is behind the curve with its policy rate and that the larger cut can be construed as a sign of the Fed's commitment not to get behind.

This thinking drew in buyers, along with a fear of missing out on further gains. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached fresh record highs in the wake of the Fed's latest decision.

This week's data largely corroborated the market's thinking that the Fed can orchestrate a soft landing for the economy. Retail sales and industrial production were both stronger than expected in August, weekly jobless claims remain steady below recession-like levels, and the Philadelphia Fed Index tipped back into expansion (i.e. above 0.0 reading) in September.

Only three S&P 500 sectors settled lower. The defensive-oriented health care (-0.6%) and consumer staples (-1.2%) sectors were among the laggards.

Meanwhile, the energy (+3.8%), communication services (+3.7%), and financial (+2.4%) sectors were the top performers.

• S&P 500: +1.4% for the week / +19.6% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite: +1.5% for the week / +19.6% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.6% for the week / +11.6% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: +2.3% for the week / +11.6% YTD

• Russell 2000: +2.1% for the week / +9.9% YTD

Market Recap - Rebounding After Last Week's Slump

The stock market rebounded following last week's big declines.

Buy-the-dip interest was a support factor, along with upside momentum acting as its own catalyst by the end of the week. Many stocks participated, but mega caps and semiconductor shares had an outsized impact on index gains.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged 10.0%. NVIDIA (NVDA) was a standout performer, bouncing 15.8% following last week's slide.

Things looked a little shaky on Wednesday after the August Consumer Price Index stoked selling interest due to the understanding that core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained above the Fed's 2.0% target at 3.2% year-over-year.

Stocks quickly recovered, though, when the S&P 500 held above last Friday's low (5,402) on Wednesday's initial retreat. The strength in NVIDIA also helped get stocks back on a winning track.

Other data this week garnered muted responses from stocks and bonds. Initial jobless claims were little changed and remain below recession-like levels at 230,000 and the August Producer Price Index reflected moderating inflation at the wholesale level.

Selling interest in recent weeks was partially predicated on concerns about economic growth, but this week's price action signaled a shift in that thinking. Small and mid cap stocks outperformed their larger peers by the end of the week, reflecting the belief that the U.S. economy will enjoy a soft landing and that the Fed will cut rates to secure that soft landing.

Market participants also see a higher likelihood of a 50 basis points rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting compared to one week ago. The fed funds futures market now shows a 45.0% probability of a 50 basis points rate cut in September, up from 30.0% last Friday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The 2-yr yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, dropped seven basis points this week to 3.58% and the 10-yr yield dropped six basis points to 3.65%.

Only one S&P 500 sector settled lower -- energy (‐0.7%) -- while the information technology sector led the pack by a wide margin, climbing 7.3%.

• S&P 500: +4.0% for the week / +18.0% YTD

• Nasdaq Composite: +6.0% for the week / +17.8% YTD

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.6% for the week / +9.8% YTD

• S&P Midcap 400: +3.2% for the week / +9.1% YTD

• Russell 2000: +4.4% for the week / +7.7% YTD